Market Analysis: Stonex Lowered Its Cotton Production Forecast In Brazil

According to the news from foreign sources on January 27, StoneX lowered the estimated Brazilian cotton output in 2024/25 from 3.83 million tons in December to 3.79 million tons.

According to the company, the main reason for lowering the estimate is that the planting area of Mato Grosso, the main production state, has been revised down.

It is predicted that the cotton planting area in this state will be 1.53 million hectares this year, slightly lower than the 1.55 million hectares estimated last time, but still about 5.1% higher than the previous year.

Stone X analyst Raphael Bulascoschi evaluated in a report: "We have noticed the delay in soybean harvesting in Mato Grosso. Therefore, cotton planting in Mato Grosso is expected to be delayed, increasing crop risk, and preventing some growers from continuing to expand their planting area this year."

If the forecast is accurate, the cotton output of 3.79 million tons in this year will increase by 4.6% compared with that of 2023/24.

From August to December, Brazilian cotton exports totaled 1.215 million tons, an increase of 94000 tons year-on-year, accounting for 43.6% of the predicted export volume.