Beijing Property Market "Cool In Early Autumn"

The property market of first tier cities enters autumn

Under the policy layer by layer, the real estate industry traditional peak season "gold nine silver ten", this year's opening success is insufficient. Since the beginning of September, following the previous downward trend, transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other first-line real estate markets have almost all transactions, with both volume and price falling. Under the guiding ideology of "housing without speculation", the property market is entering a cooling off period.

The second-hand housing market in Beijing experienced a partial upsurge in the first half of the year, which made the stock market become the main battlefield of property market regulation.

Therefore, it is strictly prohibited to hype the school district housing, crack down on "false divorce" buying houses, strictly investigate the illegal behavior of the real estate market, strictly prohibit the "wrong board" of the goods, and break the "myth" of school district housing by rotation of teachers.

According to the data of Shell Research Institute, in August, the turnover of Beijing's second-hand housing has been declining month on month since June. Although the price is still rising, the increase has shrunk for two consecutive months, starting to release a stable signal.

"Judging from the situation in the first half of September, the turnover of Beijing's second-hand housing market remains stable and downward." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, told the reporter of 21st century economic report that the wait-and-see sentiment of the second-hand housing market is increasing.

In terms of new houses, the data of Zhongyuan new houses in Beijing showed that the transaction market of new houses in Beijing was "slightly cool" in August, and the total turnover and volume fell for two consecutive months, and the number of transactions in the first two weeks of September continued to decline month on month.

However, Gao Yuan, President of Beijing chain family research institute, stressed to reporters that there were many uncontrollable factors in September, which were difficult to predict in the short term. In addition, Beijing's rectification of the new housing market was becoming more and more strict. Although the first batch of centralized land supply projects entered the market, it was difficult to have a significant impact on the overall market, and the price was expected to maintain overall stability.

Against the background of strengthening the overall "stable expectation", many analysts interviewed said that the subsequent transaction scale of Beijing's second-hand housing is expected to continue to fall, and the "golden nine" of new housing is expected to be slightly insufficient.

School district housing led the decline

"It's still like that recently. It's like a stagnant pool, and there are few transactions." a real estate agent in Desheng District of Beijing West City told the 21st century economic report that this area, once known as the "top school district", is still under the freezing point recently.

Take an old public house built in 1980 as an example. The building area of the house is 38 square meters. The listing price in mid June was 8.66 million yuan, and the buyer's offer of 8 million yuan failed to talk about the owner's mind. Recently, the apartment was finally sold for 6.8 million yuan, with a price difference of 1.2 million yuan.

At the beginning of July, Beijing Xicheng strictly implemented the policy of multi school enrollment, which quickly opened the curtain of housing price reduction in school districts. In Desheng and Yuetan "top school districts", cases of substantial price reduction emerged one after another.

In the interview of the 21st century economic reporter, some sellers even sold less than 1.5 million yuan every month, which is even the total price of a suite in the third tier cities.

On August 25, Beijing announced that it would promote the exchange of cadres and teachers in a large area and in a large proportion, which played a decisive role in the real estate speculation in the school district. Authorities said, "if the implementation is thorough, there will be no concept of" famous schools "in the future. At most, it will be a balanced area, which will be a fundamental blow to the housing prices of school districts.".

Under a series of heavy hammer, Beijing's top school district housing prices fell sharply.

The housing price reduction in Xicheng school district is not an isolated case.

The hummingbird homestead of Zhongguancun No.3 primary school, which is the "super niuxiao" in Haidian District, has been known as the "barometer" of Haidian school district. In the "rising price tide of School District Housing" at the beginning of 2021, the housing in this residential area has set a record of "one night price rise of 200000 yuan, 300000 yuan" and "half year price rise of 1.5 million yuan".

At present, the sales data of hummingbird home show that the psychology of the owners of the residential area has also begun to loosen. For a house with a floor area of 51.63 square meters, the price quoted is 7.2 million yuan, and the unit price is less than 140000 yuan / square meter. There is still room for negotiation. This price has almost returned to the level before this round of price increase.

Second hand housing transactions continue to decline

Beijing's second-hand housing market also began to respond.

On August 5, Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development once again patched up the relatively strict regulation of the property market, blocking the problem of "false divorce" buying houses. It stipulated that if the number of housing units owned by the original family before divorce does not conform to the provisions of Beijing's commodity housing purchase restriction policy, no divorced couple shall purchase commercial housing in Beijing within three years from the date of divorce.

"A client of mine originally planned to have a divorce, and then put all three suites under one person's name, and then took the opportunity to buy another house, which can't be bought." a real estate agent in Chaoyang, Beijing, told the 21st century economic report, and this situation is not an example.

The relevant person in charge of Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development has also introduced that after the "317 New Deal", the situation of purchasing houses by divorce in Beijing is expanding. Only recently, about 14% of housing transactions belong to divorced families. "This not only affects the effect of regulation, but also creates a series of legal and moral risks," he said.

After the "false divorce" buying behavior was blocked by the policy, to a certain extent, reduced the popularity of Beijing's second-hand housing market.

According to the online signature data of Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, in August 2021, the number of second-hand houses in Beijing was 15942, a decrease of 10.7% on a month on month basis, which has been downward for two consecutive months.

Xu Xiaole told the 21st century economic report that the turnover of Beijing's second-hand housing in August fell by about 20% year-on-year, but still exceeded about 20% in the same period in 2019; Although the price continued to rise, the increase shrank for two consecutive months, releasing a stable signal.

"Seen from the first half of September, the turnover of Beijing's second-hand housing market remains stable and downward. The reason for this phenomenon is that after the first half of the year's concentrated entry into the market, the demand for house purchase has decreased, and the market's wait-and-see sentiment has increased," said Xu Xiaole.

The Central Plains Market Research Department of Beijing analyzed that the reasons for the continuous decline of second-hand housing turnover were: first, the overall regulation and control and the tightening of loan line, and the second-hand housing credit support of various banks declined significantly in the second half of the year, and the policy power should not be underestimated; Second, with a round of second-hand house price hikes at the end of last year, the enthusiasm of second-hand housing buyers has gradually dropped. The tug of war between supply and demand has reached a new balance point, and the market has entered a relatively stalemate state.

In terms of owner's quotation confidence, the Zhongyuan quotation index in August was 24.04%, down 12.41% month on month. The index fell for six consecutive months, and the second-hand expectation continued to fall.

"It is expected that under the power of the strict policy, the turnover scale of second-hand housing will continue to fall, and the market will enter autumn," said Beijing Zhongyuan market research department.

New house "cool"

Beijing's new housing market, which is known as "relatively healthy", is generally stable under strict control.

According to the data of Zhongyuan new houses in Beijing, the volume and price of new houses in Beijing fell for two consecutive months in August, and the average transaction price once again reached a new monthly low this year, and the number of units sold in the first two weeks of September continued to decline month on month.

According to the statistics of Zhongyuan new houses, the total turnover of Beijing's new housing market in August was 33.588 billion yuan, down 23% month on month compared with July; Trading volume was 5112 sets, down 19% month on month; The average transaction price was 51598 yuan / square meter, with a decrease of 3362 yuan / square meter on a month-on-month basis, which was a new monthly low this year; The average price of the set was 6.57 million yuan, a decrease of 380 thousand yuan compared with July.

Under the background of Beijing's strict investigation of illegal behaviors in the property market and the real punishment of new City Holdings and other company projects, Beijing East Fifth Ring Road one new house project staff told reporters that the projects are being pushed normally, and there is no urgency.

On the other hand, the first batch of centralized land supply projects in Beijing will enter the market in September. Can the supplementary supply of new houses bring about changes in the new housing market?

According to plateau analysis, the president of Beijing chain Family Research Institute believes that the supply of new houses can promote the current market transaction activity to a certain extent, but it will not affect the current market transaction price.

"In terms of product structure, the first batch of land supply this year is more inclined to improved and quality-oriented products from the perspective of plot and construction standards, which is an effective supplement to the existing product structure. Many projects have not supplied products with the same positioning in the same region for several years, which will stimulate the interest of target groups to buy houses to a certain extent," plateau said, The prices are generally close to those of the same positioning products in the surrounding areas. In addition, the rectification of the new housing market order in Beijing is becoming more and more strict, so it is difficult for the relevant products to enter the market to have a significant impact on the overall market.

Plateau stressed that although the market price will rise driven by the increase in the proportion of improved products, this is a structural factor, which does not mean that the price will rise. In terms of a single area or a single product type, the price will remain generally stable.