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National Output Slightly Decreased, Reserve Cotton Rotation Policy Released

2021/7/30 19:29:00 80

National Output Slightly Decreased Reserve Cotton Rotation Policy Released

In June, the national meteorological conditions were more suitable for cotton growth, but the growth of Xinjiang cotton was slow due to the early low temperature and freezing injury, and the growth situation was worse than that of the same period last year. According to the survey of China Cotton Association, the total cotton production in 2021 is expected to be about 5.7218 million tons, a decrease of 3.41% year on year. This month, textile enterprises have sufficient orders, high operating rate, strong demand for raw materials, stable and rising domestic cotton prices, yarn production growth, enterprise sales smooth, and commercial inventory continues to decline. In order to optimize the structure of central reserve cotton and ensure good quality, some central reserve cotton will be rotated in 2021, with a total amount of 600000 tons. China Cotton Association predicts that the import volume of cotton in 2020 / 21 will be 3 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 87%; The inventory at the end of the period was 8.7 million tons, up 10% year on year; The consumption was 8.1 million tons, up 5.9% year on year; The output was 5.92 million tons, which was flat and slightly increased year on year.

1、 In 2021, China's total output is expected to decline slightly

In June, according to the survey of China Cotton Association, the national cotton planting area in 2021 will be 43.4559 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 5.47%. It is expected that the unit yield will slightly increase year on year, with the total output of about 5.7218 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.41%. During the month, the temperature in Xinjiang picked up, and most areas were suitable for cotton growth. The continuous high temperature weather made up for the slow growth of cotton caused by low temperature and freezing injury in the early stage to a certain extent. However, the overall growth and development of cotton was still later than last year, and the occurrence degree of diseases and insect pests was higher, and the growth of cotton was worse than the same period of last year. The predicted yield per unit area decreased by 2.26% year on year, and the total output was estimated to be 5.185 million tons, 12%, accounting for 90.6% of the national total.

2、 The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton narrowed

In June, the state continued to introduce measures to strictly control the rise of bulk commodity prices, textile enterprises as a whole maintained a high opening rate, and domestic cotton prices rose steadily. On June 30, China's cotton price index (ccindex3128b) was 16097 yuan / ton, an increase of 337 yuan compared with May 31 and a year-on-year increase of 4231 yuan; The average monthly price was 15985 yuan / ton, up 35 yuan / month on month and 4027 yuan / ton year on year. Affected by the rise of bulk commodities, the international cotton price rose more than that at home, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed compared with last month. China's import cotton price index FC index m was 96.34 cents / pound, up 2.3 cents month on month, up 28 cents year-on-year. On June 30, the price was 98.37 cents / pound, up 5.98 cents month on month. The 1% tariff was reduced to 15541 yuan / ton, which was lower than 556 yuan of domestic spot goods in the same period. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton was 418 yuan smaller than that at the end of last month.

3、 Textile enterprises demand better, commercial inventory continued to decline

In June, the textile market demand was good, the enterprise operating rate remained high, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory continued to decline. At the end of the month, the total commercial inventory of cotton in China was about 3.0173 million tons, down 15.67% month on month and 6.84% year on year. According to statistics, the shipment volume of Xinjiang cotton specialized warehouse was 339500 tons, with a decrease of 71500 tons on a month on month basis, which was lower than 25500 tons in the same period last year.

4、 Yarn output slightly increased, raw material inventory decreased slightly

Textile enterprise orders are more sufficient, yarn prices continue to rise, business pressure is small, raw material inventory decreased slightly. In June, the yarn output increased slightly by 0.6% month on month and increased by 5.4% year on year; Cloth output decreased by 1.3% month on month and increased by 6.8% year on year., As of June 30, the inventory of cotton industry in the warehouse of textile enterprises was 844600 tons, a decrease of 17800 tons compared with the end of last month, and a year-on-year increase of 186300 tons.

According to customs data, from January to June 2021, China's exports of textiles and clothing amounted to 140.09 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12.06%, including 68.56 billion US dollars of textile yarn, fabrics and products, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%; The export of clothing and accessories was US $71.53 billion, up 40.3% year on year.

5、 Cotton imports decreased slightly on a month on month basis and continued to grow year on year

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in June 2021, China's cotton import volume was 172 000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.66% on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year increase of 90.56%; In the first half of 2021, a total of 1.547 million tons were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 72.17%. In the first 10 months of 2020 / 21, a total of 2.516 million tons were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 91.6%.

6、 600000 tons of cotton reserves will be rolled out

On July 2, the relevant departments announced that in order to optimize the structure of central reserve cotton and ensure good quality, some central reserve cotton will be rotated out in 2021. The national legal working days from July 5, 2021 to September 30, 2021; The total amount is about 600000 tons, which is balanced in principle; The bottom price of listing sales is determined dynamically according to the market.