Supply And Demand Are Good, PTA Is Still Short Of Dongfeng

Introduction: since March, domestic PTA market views are more divergent, the price has appeared the phenomenon of mutual rise and fall, from the rapid upward to the rapid callback, PTA spot price has now dropped to 4425 yuan / ton, down 6.65% month on month compared with the highest value last week. Rising in the constant retrenchment, then the direction of short-term market development is bullish or bearish? Let's look at the supply and demand fundamentals of PTA.

The recent rise to fall of PTA is nothing more than a retrenchment of the previous gains. According to the previous view, under the support of Brent crude oil continued to rise, PTA's own supply was narrowed in the short term and the downstream polyester load was increased. In addition, PTA's own processing profit was low, PTA might rebound in the short term. But in fact, the market expects us crude oil inventories to increase for the fourth consecutive week and international oil prices to fall for the third consecutive day. European vaccines and U.S. virus mutation problems have filled the economy and demand with uncertainty, and the rise in crude oil market has been restrained. Therefore, we temporarily put the attribution on the upstream. The weakening of international oil price leads to the decrease of PTA and the international macro emotional transmission.

The supply and demand fundamentals of PTA from March to April are relatively considerable. First of all, from the supply side, the short-term PTA fundamentals are still relatively good. With the maintenance of the plant, under the maintenance of Huabin petrochemical, Hengli petrochemical, Hainan Yisheng, Xinjiang Zhongtai and other enterprises, PTA start-up has decreased to 77.59%. From the end of March to April, with the increasing number of PTA plant maintenance enterprises, the domestic PTA plant operating rate will continue to decline. Secondly, from the perspective of demand, polyester production has been steadily increased, with the current operating rate rising to 93.14%. At present, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 70.27, up 5.70% month on month. Therefore, in the short term, in the case of favorable supply and demand, PTA, under the condition of stable oil price, currently believes that the space for further decline is limited.

PTA Market Risk Judgment:

1. The market is worried that the US commercial crude oil inventory will increase for four consecutive weeks, and the vaccination process in European and American countries is hindered, the demand prospect is affected, and the international oil price continues to fall, which drags down the cost and mentality of chemical products.

2. The medium and long-term PTA social inventory of nearly 5 million tons will still suppress the market upward space.

3. Downstream polyester production and sales continued to be poor, inventory continued to accumulate.

4. The market transmission of downstream terminal demand is not smooth.

Considering the current domestic PTA upstream and downstream market situation, the short-term supply side still presents a downward trend, and the demand side is still supported. Therefore, supply and demand are good for PTA Market in the short term. Therefore, even if the current PTA spot market has a correction, the overall decline is expected to be limited. At present, there is no stimulating news to boost the market.