Attention Of Cotton Market: International Cotton Price Rises And Domestic Cotton Price Plate Strengthens

Cotton is a strategic material related to the national economy and people's livelihood. It is not only the most important fiber crop, but also an important oil crop. Not only are more than 200 million farmers directly involved in cotton production, but also a large number of downstream textile enterprises are concerned about cotton prices. Due to the large fluctuation of cotton spot price, there are many factors affecting cotton price. In addition, China's cotton import volume is large, and cotton textile exports are more, cotton price has been the market of concern to the majority of textile people. Therefore, the global textile network has set up the column "early attention to the cotton market" to integrate the information of the cotton market and release the latest information from the perspectives of supply and demand, national policies, international market and alternative products. (Disclaimer: this information and market data analysis is for reference only ）

Since January, the trend of international cotton price has shown a trend of "continued rise" → "slow rise" → "short-term decline" → "further upward rush". At the beginning of January, new US President Biden prepared a new round of economic stimulus plan, which brought more confidence to the financial market. The international cotton price continued to rise, and ice cotton price exceeded 80 cents / pound. Subsequently, the dollar index bottomed out and the international cotton price rose significantly In the last ten days of the month, retail investors in Europe and the United States successively "forced short" events, which aroused the concern that the global central bank might take action on the "asset bubble". After the international cotton price briefly fell to 79 cents / pound, as the US Senate accelerated the approval of the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, funds came into the market again, driving the rapid rise of international cotton prices. As of February 5, 2021, the settlement price of the main contract of ice cotton futures was 82.76 cents / pound, up 3.79 cents / pound or 4.8% compared with the beginning of January. The average price of international cotton index (m), representing the average CIF price of imported cotton in China's main ports, was 91.88 US cents / pound, up 5.94 cents / pound or 6.91% compared with the beginning of January. The RMB import cost was 14858 yuan / ton, up 826% compared with the beginning of January Yuan / ton, up 5.89%.

Since January 2021, the domestic cotton price has experienced a trend of "short-term upward", "downward adjustment" and "further rise". At the beginning of January, the global stock market continued to climb, and Zheng Mian resonance rose to above 15600 yuan / T, reaching the peak since October 2018; with sporadic and local clustering epidemic in many places in China, some enterprises' replenishment of stocks was coming to an end, and the domestic cotton price fluctuated and fell to about 15000 yuan / T at the end of January; 2 After January, with the expectation of economic recovery boosted by vaccination and economic stimulus plan continued to rise, Zheng Mian stood above 15600 yuan / ton again. According to the data of the national cotton market monitoring department, as of February 5, 2021, the settlement price of the main contract of Zheng cotton was 15490 yuan / ton, an increase of 230 yuan / ton, or 1.51%, compared with the beginning of January; the national cotton price B index (representing the price of 328 grade lint cotton in the mainland) was 15352 yuan / ton, up 339 yuan / ton or 2.26% compared with the beginning of January.

Generally speaking, the international cotton price and domestic cotton price rise and fall in different degrees, but the curve is similar. On the one hand, the current global economy has matured, on the other hand, the market response is relatively rapid, this wave of ups and downs in addition to the conventional supply and demand impact, but also received the impact of international and domestic policies, as well as the positive impact of new crown vaccination. Global textile network analysts believe that with the decline in cotton farmers' willingness to plant, cotton inventory in 2021 will not be too high. Coupled with inflation, cotton prices will be reflected in a narrow range of shock finishing.