Cotton Yarn Import Price Fell More Than 10% This Year

Recently, the whole industry chain is in the traditional off-season, textile enterprises still have no improvement in receiving orders, the accumulation of inventory and the difficulty of capital turnover have made enterprises embarrassed, and the market has withered. As of July 23, cy c32s pure cotton yarn reported 18555 yuan / ton, which continued to drop by 15 yuan / ton compared with last week.

In terms of raw materials, as of July 23, cc3128b cotton index closed at 12321 yuan / ton, up 158 yuan / ton compared with last week. Polyester staple fiber reported 5300 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton year on year. Viscose staple fiber reported 8300 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton year on year. The prices of the three are lower than that of the same period last year. In recent months, cotton fell to the lowest point in March, the price center of gravity has increased, and the overall price is still low. Viscose staple fiber plummeted, production and marketing light. After the crude oil price fell in the middle of May, the crude oil price fell sharply after the end of April, and the crude oil price may fall after a short wave. The raw material end weakens, the yarn price has no support.

The price of pure cotton yarn is stable and falling, and the inventory is high. It is reflected that the recent cotton yarn orders are small, enterprise inventory is rising. In general, the majority of large-scale enterprises have finished product inventory of more than 30 days; small and medium-sized enterprises generally have 20-30 days, and some of them have 45 days. As the orders are not ideal, the enterprise's inventory is still increasing. The main reasons are as follows: 1. The market of grey fabric in the downstream is worrying. According to the feedback from the weaving factories in Shengze area, since the middle and late July, it is difficult for the pure cotton grey fabric to be stocked, and the manufacturers are willing to make a loss to do so; secondly, the imported yarn impacts the domestic yarn. Although the advantages of imported yarn no longer exist this year, the current impact on domestic yarn can not be ignored; third, cotton raw materials are still running at the bottom, and there is no possibility of price rise. In the near future, low or low cotton yarn manufacturers will still be in stock.

According to customs statistics, China's cotton yarn import volume in June was about 150000 tons, a decrease of 6.5% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 50% on a month on month basis. However, after the rebound in recent years, it is difficult to continue the sharp increase of 10 thousand tons of yarn in recent years. Since the beginning of this year, the sharp drop of yarn price has led to serious losses of traders in the past few months. The loss of 1500-2500 yuan per ton has made many small traders withdraw from the market. However, in May, due to the sharp decline of the external market, which exceeded that of the internal market, a better price was given, so many traders replenished their goods, which also led to an obvious increase in the import volume in June. However, in June, with the rebound of the external price and the worse than expected improvement of the market, the order quantity in the market decreased significantly. The recent tense relations between China and India have also made traders afraid to ask for Indian yarn easily. Therefore, in terms of total amount, China's cotton yarn import volume in 18 / 19 cotton year was 1.9732 million tons, compared with that in 19 / 20 year, so far only 1.507 million tons. Whether the import volume will reach 250000 tons in the next two months is still unknown. It is certain that the total cotton yarn import volume of this year will definitely drop by about 10% compared with last year.

Let's look at Sino US relations. Just now, China announced the closure of the US Consulate General in Chengdu. This move is a counterattack taken by China after the United States asked China to close the Chinese Consulate General in Houston on July 21. Now, the market is not only concerned about the specific reasons behind the specific act of closing the consulate. Instead, they began to pay attention to the trend of Sino US relations in the post epidemic era. For domestic investors in China, we should be particularly vigilant against this macro level risk. Although China's economy recovered first under the impact of the epidemic, the tension in Sino US relations may cause investors to worry about the sustainability and intensity of economic recovery.