Asian Manufacturing Is Deeply Influenced By The US "China" Trade War.

According to the Japan economic news, global corporate earnings are in the doldrums due to the US "China" trade war. Among them, Taiwan, Korea and other Asian regions with the largest semiconductor enterprises have the largest reduction in revenue, about 2. If the United States decides to launch another fourth tariff sanctions against China from September 1st this year, the global business performance is bound to face even more severe challenges.

According to Japanese economic news, using the QUICK FactSet database, this paper analyzes the performance of 10 thousand and 850 enterprises in the world in August 2nd this year, and finds that the net income of the major enterprises in 2019 has decreased by 2% compared with the same period last year, which has been decreasing for 2 consecutive quarters since the 2018 10~12 month in 2018. Moreover, in the 5 major regions, including the United States (including Canada), Europe, Asia, Japan and China, 4 regions except the United States showed a drop in profits. Among them, Asian enterprises' earnings decreased by 21%, and fell for the 3 consecutive quarter. China's corporate earnings declined by 1.3%, and the 2 quarter earnings fell.

In Japan, corporate earnings also shrank by 7.3% in the 3 quarter. Among them, Japan's auto revenue decreased by 9, and Japan's electric and Fanuc earnings also deteriorated. Among other companies, including TOYOTA, the number of entrepreneurs who cut their earnings this year reached 35, and 15 were much higher than those that had raised their earnings.

In terms of industry analysis, the most obvious deterioration of performance is semiconductor, electronic machinery, automobile and machinery. The net profit of semiconductor related enterprises in Asia has decreased by nearly 5. The earnings of Samsung Electronics in Korea have halved to 5 trillion 180 billion won (about 470 billion yen). In addition, Taiwan's integrated circuit manufacturing (TSMC), the world's largest semiconductor foundry company and Apple Corp, also plunged into a hard fight. Its net income fell to NT $66 billion 700 million (about 230 billion yen), a decrease of 8% and a 2 consecutive quarter of decline.

Auto related businesses are also in recession. China's new car sales in the world's largest market, as of the end of June this year, have been lower than the same period for 12 consecutive months. China Geely Automobile announced July 8th, 2019 1~6 month earnings estimate reduced by about 4, and the annual sales target reduced by 1.

Sales of India, the world's fourth largest auto market, also declined compared with the same period last year. The final profit and loss of India Dachang Tata Motors was 36 billion 800 million rupees (about 560 billion yen) and the deficit expanded 2 times. Although the overall revenue of Hyundai Motor has increased, sales in China have decreased by 35% and 8% in the India market.

Under the general deterioration of business performance in major regions of the world, only US business revenue increased by 3.8%, up 25% over the same period last year. The total revenue of Google, apple, Facebook and Amazon's 4 largest IT industry (GAFA) is US $25 billion, which accounts for nearly 1 of the total in the US. If GAFA's earnings were deducted, US business revenue increased by only 1%.

US economic expansion has slowed down. According to HIS Markit statistics, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (quick report value) in July was 50, the lowest level since September 2009. SMBC nixing securities expert also pointed out that "the US economy has reached a mature stage, and the slowdown in manufacturing industry may increase in the second half of this year". The PRE is 16 times that of the United States and 18 times that of India, which is 13 times higher than that of Europe and Japan. Under the general reduction of global corporate earnings, it is expected that global stock prices will be limited in the future.