A Shares Do Not Fall Or Rise: This Logic Is Somewhat Interesting.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and A shares did not fall. The volume reached a new high of 3268. After Friday, the concussion fell, and the lowest point hit 3232 points, which made up the gap of Thursday's gap and closed 3237 points.

It is suggested that investors should try their best to absorb at the bottom of the market, small and medium sized stocks with small volume in recent years, and state owned reform stocks with low and medium prices.

1, two consecutive Friday, diving for what? Friday diving, breaking the five week moving average, closing to 3212 points, so that many people lost their direction and confidence in the spring market, think this week.

After raising interest rates, the market will suffer a heavy setback. Not only the 3200 point platform and the 60 antenna will not be insured at 3169 points, but will drop to 3100 points.

But I think the 3200 point of the new platform is solid, and I firmly believe that the Spring Festival market will be renewed after the two sessions.

On Monday, the market unexpectedly recovered all the moving averages, and even gained three days.

On Thursday, when the Fed, which had been bothering the market, realized that the rate hike was bad, most people expected that the market would not even sink down, jumping 7 points higher, and opening the index was the lowest index, then went all the way to break the 3264 highest point.

On Thursday, the largest volume of trading since December 3rd last year was 550 billion 500 million. Many people thought that it would be all right to win the 3301 high in November 29th last year.

But on Friday, it only hit 6 points, and all the way down, the late diving again, repeating the scene on Friday.

The reason for these two dives is to anticipate the expected increase in the Fed's interest rate, or reverse the operation of the main body against the thinking of most investors, or the need to shake up the market and shake up the two out of the market.

Therefore, people should not be too bullish or bullish along inertia, but should strengthen the recognition of the main keynote of slow rising of slow road.

2, why is it that the slow growth of volatility is the basic pattern of the market? From the market trend of President Liu Shiyu after taking office last year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by only 13.2% in 13 months from 2860 points in February 20th last year, 3237 points this March 17th (Friday).

Judging from the increase in the first 3 months of this year, 3103 points, 3237 points, and nearly 3 months have risen 4.3%.

From the closing days of the 100 point platform, the 2900 point platform closed for 57 days, the 3000 platform closed for 56 days, the 3100 point platform closed for 61 days, and 3200 points platform closed for 45 days.

Almost every 100 point platform will close for nearly 60 days, almost two times the actual circulation market value, so that the average shareholding cost of the entire market is going up to a higher level, and the big market can stand on a new 100 point platform.

From this we can see that there will be no quick fall and big jump if there is no rapid growth and high inflation.

Even if diving into the market, at most can only pierce a hundred point platform, and it is impossible to break through two hundred point platforms (just like last week's 3112 points, when the callback can pierce 3200 points at most, and not pierce 3100 points).

At the same time, it also shows that when the market is on a 100 point platform, when the closing days and turnover rates are not enough, it is unrealistic to expect to stand on a new 100 point platform.

Quantitative change can only be accumulated to a certain degree before qualitative change can enter into the new hundred point platform.

The slow upward movement of the platform with 100 points as a unit determines that the market can only slow down.

Judging from the moving average system, since October last year, the Shanghai stock index has always stood on the annual line (now 3058 points), the half year line (now 3154 points), the 60 day line (now 3176 points), and the five week EMA (now 3224 points), which is an important symbol of the market entering the slow market road, and the market's fluctuation is usually around the 5 antenna (now 3244 points) and 10 antennas (now 3237 points) between the gains and losses.

This also determines that the basic pattern of today's market is to slow down, and people should not abandon the old idea of adjusting the big band of the index without enhancing their happiness.

3, how did the pattern of steady growth and slow growth rise? Despite the past 26 years,

From time to time, some people put forward the idea of "steady growth and limited growth", but in the actual trend, they always can not get what they want.

Now, how can we achieve steady growth and slow down? First of all, the mode of IPO is changed from capital purchase to market value purchase.

This avoids the issue of a number of new shares every one or two weeks. The market has moved trillions of funds to move the stock market and abandon the stock to "fight new", thus artificially intensifying the fluctuation and fluctuation frequency of the stock market.

This phenomenon is no longer in existence.

Second, the placement of new shares in the market strengthens the lock up of chips.

Not only the small and medium-sized retail investors who purchase the new shares online must lock the chips for 20 days, but they will have new qualifications, and those who sell the new shares will have to purchase new shares every day. Therefore, a category B organizations and a super large family with 50 million -6000 million market capitalization will have to lock the chips for 20 days before they can get tickets for placing the new shares.

Only by this way, the number and shareholding time of today's market investors are more than ever before, thus strengthening the stability of the market.

Thirdly, the proportion of stock index futures opened by management after the stock market crash.

And so forth.

So far, there are still 20 hands in hand, so it is hard to achieve the goal of shorting the stock market by shorting the futures index. Investors in the A share market are no longer afraid of the third cycle of monthly delivery.

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Again, the national team with 3 trillion capital is the most powerful stabilizing force in the stock market.

Moreover, through the operation of one and a half years, they have continuously converted their stocks and positions, and now they mainly hold large blue chips.

It can also play an important role in stabilizing the stock market and smoothing the fluctuation of the market by means of 50ETF.

Finally, and most importantly, China's economy has been steadily improving. GDP has maintained 6.5% growth at medium and high speed, with stable monetary policy and basically stable exchange rate.

The "government work report" of the two sessions put forward the policy hotspot of mixed pformation of central enterprises, reform of local state-owned assets, one belt, PPP, artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, energy saving and environmental protection, and the performance of listed companies increased year by year.

All of these have determined that the stock market will slow down and rise steadily in 2017.

Why can it only be "slow up"? That is the containment of factors such as the accelerated issuance of new shares, the continuous reduction of size, and the shortage of new funds in the market.

4, why should we replace the "style change" with the "round up" concept? As the number of listed stocks has exceeded 3200, the new shares are still on the market, and the stock market funds are insufficient and new funds are limited. Therefore, even if the pattern of concussion is slow up, it is impossible for all stocks to rise together, but only the rising trend of different indices, plates and stocks.

It's easy to get people astray from the "style pformation theory".

If an index is led, it can dominate the market structure for one or two years.

For example, over half a month ago, the growth enterprise board had seen a continuous rise for several days, to 1977.

Many people think that the market style will be pformed into the gem. The gem has a big chance similar to the 585 point -4037 point. The first target can be directed at 2680 points.

I firmly oppose this style change theory, think that gem is just overshoot rebound, make up, round up, it is difficult to break through the 1970 point -2000 point dense zone.

Sure enough, in the next two weeks, the gem not only failed to expand, but fell to 1949 points, which is still below the closing index of 1962 at the end of last year, and is far from being suppressed by the half line and the annual line. It is the worst among the four indexes.

The reasons are as follows: first, the issuance of new shares is continuous, the market is new and old, and the old ones are abandoned. The two is the sharp reduction of the high pfer companies shortly after the IPO; the three is the new regulation of refinancing, which makes it difficult for the GEM companies to buy the high-quality assets and sign the performance of the gambling agreement after the refinancing time is pushed back. It is difficult to guarantee that the capital stock can still grow high after the expansion of the stock market. Four, there is a huge pressure on the size and non reduction of the company after listing for one year and three years. This year only two and a half months, 409 important shareholders of the company have been reduced, and there are nearly 100 hundred million yuan reduction, with 4 more than 1 billion yuan reduction.

What is even more frightening is that the high pfer rate is accompanied by the reduction of the size, which makes the performance of the old board leaders, such as Huayi Brothers, network technology, palm science and technology, music network, and so on.

In 2016, the company with high delivery rate was also busy with the reduction of size, such as win time, Yun Yi electric, bio and electric energy, and so on.

More importantly, the SFC said it was studying new rules for non reduction in size, making it more difficult to escape before the new rules.

This is also an important reason why the market does not stir up small and medium-sized stocks, but only the first time.

5, why do I not advocate frying new shares? There are opportunities in the new shares.

Especially when the issue of new shares is too fast, due to the lack of funds in the stock market, some 40 million shares of small cap high-tech stocks have repeatedly appeared only 4 or 5 trading boards have been opened, valuations are lower than 40 times price earnings ratio.

At this point, pulling the distance down the bottom, often can quickly harvest more than 30% of the profits.

The small cap stock in Shanghai stock market, I call it "small gem", has a total quantity of only 100, and its positioning is lower than that of Shenzhen GEM, so there are more opportunities.

However, in the recent market, the new market must be launched, and the stock price will go up by 250% after the opening up.

For example, the new new leader Zhangjia port has met the standard of abnormal fluctuations of the exchange 5 times from 16 -3 January 24th.

From the first day of the market up 44%, and then accumulated 15 trading boards, the current price of 29.44 yuan, compared to 4.37 yuan issuance price up to 573%.

The earnings per share is 0.41 yuan, and the P / E ratio is 72 times, far exceeding the average price earnings ratio of bank shares 10 times.

For example, silver colored, from 1.78 yuan -15.64 yuan, in addition to the first day rose 44%, and 18 consecutive daily limit, or up to 778%.

The performance is only 0.03 yuan, and the 500 times price earnings ratio is pure speculation, and the risk of high take over is high.

My particular worry is that if the market continues to deviate from its performance, it will be too slow and too slow for people to find new shares, which is likely to force managers to further accelerate the pace of IPO issuance. It will now make 8-10 rounds every week, and it will return to 15 last week in December and January this year, sending three to three per day, which will bring disaster to the entire market and investors.

Friday's diving and the volume of Yin wrapped Yang, still belong to the strong wash dish nature, in line with the innovation high after entering two retreat one rhythm.

New shares are expected to ebb next week.

The vast majority of stocks, including the Chinese stock market, bank shares, insurance stocks, brokerage firms, central enterprises, and local state reform stocks, are mostly hovering near the bottom of the stock market crash.

This gives the OTC fund a low opportunity to enter the market, and the volatility of the market outlook remains unchanged. The continuation of the "Chun Sheng" market can still be expected.

To overcome the 3301 point, we need to take two steps. First, we must take a firm 3250-3260 position and wait for 3200 days to close for more than 50 days (now 45 days).

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