PX Prices Rebounded Sharply, PTA Supply Pressure.

The 1505 futures contract of PTA futures rose from 4800 yuan / ton to 5100 yuan / ton, but it didn't last long. The three trading days fell sharply from the high level. As of March 6th, the closing price has fallen back below 5000 yuan / ton.

This wave of cost driven rally is limited. Under the background of oversupply, PTA futures prices will remain weak.

Compared with the pre Spring Festival, the pressure of crude oil supply has eased slightly. OPEC's strategy of squeezing American shale oil producers out of the market has achieved initial success. Many shale oil companies in the United States have reduced production, and the development of higher cost drilling has begun to close.

In March 3rd, Saudi Arabia raised the official price of crude oil to the United States and Asia, and raised the price of crude oil delivered to the United States in April to 1 US dollars per barrel, raising the price of light crude oil exported to Asia by 1.40 US dollars per barrel, indicating that the demand for oil in these two big markets is growing since the oil price crashed last June.

Affected by the impact of oil prices and the tight supply of upstream naphtha, PX prices remain strong and some devices are cut down, making PX price easy to rise and fall in the near future.

Since February, the price of CFR Taiwan PX and CFR Japan naphtha have increased by more than 20%.

As of March 5th, the price difference between PX and naphtha was US $335 / ton, and there was still room for room for price differentials.

In terms of equipment, many enterprises began to enter routine maintenance cycle, and supply pressure temporarily slowed down.

Japan's new Japan stone was located in the water island in February.

The device shut down, and other devices in the company maintained about 8 load in the 1 quarter.

South Korea's S-OIL and Hyundai Petrochemical have a maintenance schedule of around 40 days in 3-4 months.

ExxonMobil in Singapore's Jurong PX installation plan also closed in March for routine maintenance.

Tenglong aromatics plans to park for about a month in March.

Newly formed in the past year

In terms of cost, the impact of cost on PTA price is more direct, that is, PTA spot price, =PX price + processing fee + profit.

With the cost of PX lifting, the spot price of PTA continued to rise after the Spring Festival.

The settlement price of the big three contracts is strong. In February, Sinopec PTA settlement price was executed 4725 yuan / ton, Xiang Lu Petrochemical implemented 4750 yuan / ton, Hengli Petrochemical implemented 4800 yuan / ton.

Because

The price increase was not as good as PX in the same period, and the profit was pferred to the PX industry.

Late PTA supply pressure is greater, after several failed production alliance failures, in order to maintain market share, PTA companies have been passively maintaining a higher load level. At present, the operating rate is near 73%. Last week, domestic PTA production was 448 thousand and 600 tons, and inventory remained at the normal level of 4 to 7 days.

In terms of device, Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant began trial operation before the holiday. At present, no qualified products have been laid off. It is expected that the market will be put on the market in mid and late 3.