Oversupply Of Serious Bad Cotton City Policy Factors To Support The Strengthening Of Cotton

　　 cotton Insufficient demand and oversupply have pushed cotton prices down, but the state has opened up stores at fixed prices and temporarily issued more cotton import quotas to cotton market. It is estimated that zhengcotton futures are mainly oscillating in recent years, but the price center will increase.

　　 Oversupply of cotton market

Cotton production increased in 2011, and consumption dropped in 2012. The oversupply of cotton market was particularly prominent. According to the prediction of the US Department of agriculture in September, China's cotton terminal inventory is 7 million 731 thousand and 500 tons, the inventory consumption ratio is as high as 93.45%, and the highest in history has not exceeded 40%. According to the national cotton market monitoring system, cotton inventory consumption ratio is as high as 102.19%. All cotton stocks can be supplied to textile and other downstream enterprises for more than a year. A large part of them belong to the national reserve. If the state does not throw the reserve, the market will not be affected too much.

　　 Market factors are mostly negative cotton market.

First of all, under the dual constraints of rising costs and insufficient terminal demand, the textile industry is facing difficulties in operation. Many textile enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are still in a halt or semi shutdown state. The proportion of chemical fiber used by start-up enterprises is relatively high, and the demand for cotton has declined considerably. In order to increase the supply of cotton market, the state sold cotton reserves to textile enterprises in September at the base price of 18500 yuan / ton. Since throwing storage, the turnover rate is basically below 50%, and the transaction price is slightly lower than the average spot price of cotton in the country. From the turnover rate and transaction price, the demand for cotton in textile enterprises is relatively weak.

Second, the cotton prices in China are much higher than those in foreign countries, resulting in a significant increase in cotton import pressure.

Third, cotton imports are subject to national quotas, while cotton yarn imports do not require quotas, so cotton yarn imports are increasing rapidly. If domestic and foreign cotton spreads do not shrink, it is estimated that cotton yarn imports will continue to increase, and the spinning industry is likely to accelerate the transfer to India, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries.

　　 policy Factors support cotton strength

Since September, the state has opened up and sold new cotton this year at the price of 20400 yuan / ton, which is 1000 to 2000 yuan / ton higher than the market price. In September 25th, the cotton harvest and storage was 29550 tons, with a total turnover of 117940 tons, which was obviously higher than that of the same period last year. The purchase and storage will strengthen the price of traction cotton.

Considering that the new cotton will be concentrated on the market this year, the supply of cotton will also increase, and the sale of national cotton reserves will stop in September 29th. The reserve price is 18500 yuan / ton, which is 1900 yuan / ton lower than the state's purchase and storage price. Such negative factors will disappear as soon as the storage is stopped. In addition, the issuance of import quotas has always been a bad sword hanging on the cotton market, but the relevant departments of the NDRC have said that no more cotton import quotas will be issued in the near future. Therefore, the negative factors for the issuance of quotas can basically be ruled out.

　　 Zheng cotton prices will increase.

According to the current spot price level, most of the four grade cotton that meets the demand for storage will probably be sold to the State Reserve. Later market supply will gradually increase the cotton price pulling force, which will increase the spot price of cotton. Therefore, it is very likely that cotton prices will move upward.

In addition, cotton prices will not shift too much. On the one hand, when the spot price rises, some of the cotton will be transferred to the spot market, but the spot demand is weak, so it is difficult to bear the sharp rise in prices. On the other hand, the demand for cotton storage this year is higher than that of last year, and the cost of storage has increased. According to the analysis of the relevant persons, raising the storage requirements will increase the cost of the storage and storage enterprises 500 yuan / ton. According to this calculation, the storage of 20400 yuan / ton is equivalent to 19900 yuan / ton of the spot market. As it is more convenient to sell through the spot market, under the same price conditions, the processing enterprises will tend to sell in the spot market, thereby reducing the cotton price. Cotton price The rise will not be too great.