Market Observation: Analyzing The Future Trend Of China'S Cotton Industry From Data

The cotton output in China fluctuates significantly. From 2019 to 2024, the output will fluctuate between 5.889 million tons and 6.16 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 0.9%. In 2023, the output will decline to 5.6179 million tons due to extreme drought in Xinjiang, and in 2024, it will rise to 6.16 million tons through water-saving technology promotion and policy support, hitting a new high in nearly six years. This volatility reflects the industry's high sensitivity to climate and policy.

Based on the popularization of water-saving technology and breakthroughs in biological breeding, according to the 2025-2030 China Cotton Industry Development Analysis and Investment Strategy Forecast Report of China Research Institute of Puhua Industry, it is estimated that the cotton output will reach 640-655000 tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 4%. The core driving forces include:

Release of Xinjiang's production capacity: in 2024, Xinjiang's cotton output will account for 90%, the mulch drip irrigation coverage will increase to 85%, and the average water saving per mu will be 40%;

Promotion of transgenic cotton: in 2024, the planting area of double resistance (insect resistant and herbicide resistant) cotton will exceed 15 million mu, and the per unit yield will increase by 15% - 20%;

Policy support: In 2024, the target price subsidy for cotton will increase to 18600 yuan/ton to ensure the stability of cotton farmers' income.

The cotton industry chain is extending from traditional planting to high value-added textile manufacturing, and greening and digitalization have become the main line of transformation.

Long staple cotton breeding: in 2024, the proportion of long staple cotton in Xinjiang will rise to 18%, and the premium rate of end products will reach 30% - 50%;

Application of recycled cotton: the technology of recycling and cotton making from waste textiles is mature, and the market scale of recycled cotton will exceed 8 billion yuan in 2024.

Intensified international competition: in 2024, the CIF price of American cotton will be 2000 yuan/ton lower than that of Xinjiang cotton, and the import volume will increase by 75% in five years;

Rigidity of resource constraints: groundwater overdraft is serious in North China cotton region, and the irrigation cost per mu is 2.3 times that of Xinjiang;

Unbalanced quality structure: the self-sufficiency rate of high-end textile cotton is less than 60%, and the annual import of American cotton and Australian cotton exceeds 2 million tons.

Water saving revolution: Xinjiang popularized shallow buried drip irrigation technology, and the water consumption per mu dropped from 450m ³ to 280m ³, still maintaining 550 kg/mu per unit yield;

Brand building: the average export price of "Xinjiang cotton" geographical indication certification products will increase by 12% in 2024, breaking through 3000 US dollars/ton;

Blending innovation: Lutai Textile developed cotton/linen blended fabric, and the gross margin of the end product was increased to 35%.

There will be three major structural changes in the cotton industry in 2025:

Planting digitalization: 50 unmanned cotton field demonstration areas have been built nationwide, and the intelligent rate of cotton pickers has exceeded 70%;

Processing low-carbon: the promotion of photovoltaic cotton field integration project has reduced carbon emissions per ton of lint processing by 40%;

Product functionalization: the market scale of new materials such as antibacterial cotton and intelligent temperature control cotton fiber has increased by 25% annually.

Seed industry revitalization plan: complete the construction of 50 cotton germplasm resource banks by 2025, and break through seed chip technology;

Bonus of Xinjiang Free Trade Zone: in 2024, Kashgar Free Trade Zone Textile Industrial Park will attract more than 12 billion yuan of investment, opening up the export channel of Central Asia;

Carbon neutral opportunities: the cotton stalk biomass power generation project is included in the CCER transaction, and the carbon sink income per mu of cotton field reaches 30 yuan.

Conclusion: Driven by "science and technology+green", China's cotton industry will break through resource and cost constraints and build a full chain competitiveness from field to fashion in 2025. Enterprises need to focus on biological breeding, digital agriculture and brand appreciation, and seize the commanding heights of the global high-end textile market while ensuring the safety of national textile raw materials.