Can National Cotton Avoid The Mistakes Of The National Economy?

Cotton is a strategic agricultural product. At present, the main cotton producing areas all over the country are in good harvest. However, the author is Cotton producing area On top of the interview, I felt a concern: will domestic cotton repeat the 2008 and 2009 domestic soybean production? Mistakes ?

In 2008, the price of soybeans continued to decline in the market, and the state adopted policies to protect farmers' interests and plant soybeans, which was purchased at a protective price of 1.85 yuan per catty. Because the price is much higher than the international soybean price, and the soybean has no high tariff and quota protection, in the global trading situation, a large number of foreign cheap soybeans mainly rely on the US soybean to go to China. At this point, the grain storage system was forced to eat about 7000000 tons of domestic soybeans, and the storage capacity was urgent. Many soybeans were kept in temporary outdoor stores, and they could not run out of the price. Due to the high cost of domestic soybeans, Heilongjiang soybean oil squeezing enterprises in soybean producing areas are generally in a semi shutdown state, and the losses are serious. What is even more disappointing is that some farmers are not able to sell their beans to the middle grain stores for sale, and they are forced to sell them at low prices. Price difference The state has discounted the protection of farmers. Some people joked: "the policy of purchasing and storage did not save domestic soybean, but saved us soybeans."

From the point of view of foreign trade, soybeans and cotton are very similar: China is not only the largest importer of soybeans in the world, but also the largest importer of cotton in the world, importing soybeans and cotton mainly from the United States; import tariffs of soybeans 3%, no import quotas, and import tariffs of cotton quotas 1%. quota Protection, but in accordance with the current international cotton prices, the quota outside the implementation of the slip. tax rate Not high.

Moreover, the cotton situation this year is very similar to that of soybeans. Not long ago, 8 ministries, including the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of agriculture, jointly issued the "cotton temporary storage and purchase plan for 2011". It was decided that the price of standard grade lint would be set up in the period of September 1, 2011 -2012 March 31st, and that the price of the lint cotton price would be lower than 19800 yuan / ton for 5 consecutive working days. Internationally, cotton futures prices are currently much lower than domestic reserve prices, and the spread is as high as 2000 yuan.

As we all know, the profit margins of textile enterprises using cotton are very low. How can they carry such a large cost difference? How can we resist the temptation of low price? It can be said that as long as the US cotton futures prices remain at the present low level, the domestic cotton industry this year and next year will have a big probability event similar to that of domestic soybean in 2008 and 2009.

To be fair, the policy of collecting and storing agricultural products in China has played an active role in protecting farmers' interests and stabilizing market prices. The prices of staple grain, such as rice, wheat and corn, have remained stable for a long time. At the same time, farmers' enthusiasm for grain production has been rising, and grain has been increasing year by year.

However, why did the same storage and acquisition system have made the domestic soybean industry in a dilemma and may again embarrass the domestic cotton industry? The author thinks that the most direct reason is that the price of purchasing and storage is higher than that of the international price, but the deeper problem lies in the contradiction between the multiple objectives of the regulation of agricultural products such as soybeans and cotton and the unity of regulation and control means.

Look at China's regulation of rice and wheat and other agricultural products. At least, there are two objectives: Protecting Farmers' interests and planting enthusiasm (protecting national food security) and stabilizing prices (tending to maintain relatively low prices). The state's corresponding regulation and control means not only strong collection and storage system, but also high farmers' planting subsidy (relative to cotton), strict import and export quota control, and administrative intervention measures at any time. The speculative forces in the futures market understand that the state attaches great importance to the three main grain crops and never dare to stir up trouble on the three main grain varieties.

Looking at the regulation of soybeans and cotton in China, there are two similar goals, but the regulation means are relatively simple. Since these two kinds of agricultural products are regarded as ordinary cash crops without strong administrative intervention, the price of domestic soybean and cotton is higher than the international price in the case of less cultivated land per capita and higher planting costs. At the same time, the two kinds of agricultural products lack high tariffs and import quota protection. In this way, it is not surprising that the policy of collecting and storing the Treasury has been fighting alone.

This year's cotton picking is coming. Obviously, we can not put the hope of avoiding the homemade cotton to repeat the mistakes made in China. Then, what measures can we take on our own initiative?

The most direct and effective measures are, of course, increasing tariffs and implementing strict import quota management. In this way, we can easily achieve the goal of protecting farmers' interests and planting enthusiasm. However, such protection will undoubtedly make domestic enjoyment much higher than foreign cotton prices. Even if we do not consider possible trade disputes, we only take into account the endurance of domestic cotton's long downstream industrial chain, especially the clothing industry or large exporters. This means will not work.

Under the premise that planting cost is higher than international level, it is necessary to protect farmers' interests and planting enthusiasm, and to stabilize cotton prices at a reasonable price to protect their downstream industries. The most appropriate way should be to issue high subsidies.

The first is to increase seed cotton subsidies. At present, there is a subsidy of about 100 yuan for planting one mu of grain, but only 10 yuan for one mu cotton. In the past few years, because of the worry that cotton and grain would compete for land and affect food security, cotton seeds had never been subsidized. Now that we consider that we must protect farmers' enthusiasm for planting rationally, we should increase the subsidy of cotton seed.

The second is temporary subsidy. Far from being thirsty, raising the subsidy for cotton seed subsidies can only be the enthusiasm of farmers next year, and will affect the price of cotton harvested next year. In view of the special circumstances this year, we may consider changing temporary storage and collection to direct direct subsidies to farmers. We should suspend the policy of collecting and storing high prices, and learn from the form of subsidies such as old and new, home appliances to the countryside and so on, so that farmers can sell cotton at the market price in the middle storage cotton and the enterprises that have been qualified. This will not only protect the interests of cotton farmers this year, but also protect the interests of downstream textile enterprises. At the same time, it also saved the huge cost of storage and storage.

The three is to issue flexible subsidies. The temporary storage and purchase plan will be released by multiple departments and is about to start. However, as long as we adjust the reserve and purchase policy slightly, we can achieve the dual goal of protecting farmers' interests and planting enthusiasm, and stabilizing cotton prices at a reasonable price to protect their downstream businesses. The key here lies in abandoning the doctrine of "going out of price". Specifically for the purchase of cotton this year, the auction base price does not have to be determined by the purchase and storage price, but determined by the cost of imports. The middle loss is a flexible subsidy.